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Wednesday Tropics Update


The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Twelve, located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo 
Verde Islands.

East of the Windward Islands:
A broad area of low pressure located just east of the Windward 
Islands continues to produce a large area of showers and 
thunderstorms.  Satellite-derived wind data and radar images from 
Barbados indicate that this system does not yet have a well-defined 
circulation center.  However, upper-level winds are forecast to 
become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form over the next several days if the system remains over 
open waters while moving generally westward at about 15 mph through 
the Windward Islands and into the Caribbean Sea.  An Air Force 
reconnaissance mission is scheduled to investigate the system this 
morning, if necessary.

1. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with localized flooding, 
as well as gusty winds to gale force, are expected over portions of 
the Windward Islands, northern portions of South America, and the 
ABC Islands during the next couple of days.  Interests in those 
locations, in addition to those in Central America, should continue 
to monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

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