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Wednesday Tropics Update

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low 
pressure located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles 
has continued to increase and become more concentrated overnight. 
However, recent satellite wind data indicate that the circulation 
remains elongated and lacks a well-defined center.  Although 
environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, additional 
gradual development of this system is expected and a tropical 
depression is likely to form within the next couple of days.  The 
disturbance is forecast to move slowly toward the west-northwest, 
toward the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands. 
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas 
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure located between the west coast of 
Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers 
and thunderstorms. Some gradual development is possible, and the 
system could become a short-lived tropical depression over the far 
eastern Atlantic during the next couple of days.  By late this week, 
environmental conditions are forecast to become increasingly 
unfavorable for further development. Regardless, the system could 
bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands 
through Thursday. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

3. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure is expected to form within the next day or 
so along a decaying frontal zone over the central subtropical 
Atlantic.  Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive 
for some gradual development thereafter, and a tropical or 
subtropical depression could form later this week while the 
system drifts generally eastward.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.



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