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Wednesday Tropics Update

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

 Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that a small 
area of low pressure is located over the far southwestern Caribbean 
Sea near the east coast of Nicaragua.  This system is currently 
accompanied by disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development 
of this system is possible while it drifts northwestward near the 
coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, and it could become a tropical 
depression later this week if the disturbance remains over water. 
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled 
to investigate this system later today, if necessary.  Regardless 
of development, the low could produce periods of heavy rainfall 
across portions of eastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras through 
late this week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.



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