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Tuesday Tropics Update


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Northwestern Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms have increased slightly, but remain 
limited near a well-defined area of low pressure located about 40 
miles south-southwest of Bermuda. If the associated shower and 
thunderstorm activity can increase further near the center, the 
system could still become a tropical depression later today. After 
that time, the system is expected to continue moving northward 
towards cooler waters and into a region of unfavorable upper-level 
winds, which should limit additional development. Regardless of 
development, periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are 
expected over Bermuda though this morning.  Interests in Bermuda 
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2. Southwestern Atlantic:
An area of low pressure is expected to form north of Puerto Rico 
over the southwestern Atlantic in a few days.  Thereafter,  
environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual subtropical 
development of this system while it meanders over the southwestern 
Atlantic through the weekend. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

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