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Tuesday Tropics Update

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwest Gulf of Mexico:
A trough of low pressure over southeastern Mexico is producing a 
large area of showers and thunderstorms over the Bay of Campeche 
and adjacent land areas.  This system is forecast to move slowly 
northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico later this 
morning.  Environmental conditions are expected to conducive for 
some development, and a tropical depression could from within the 
next day or two while the system meanders over the southwestern Gulf 
of Mexico.  After that time, increasing upper-level winds are 
likely to hinder additional development.  Regardless of formation, 
heavy rainfall is expected over portions of southern Mexico during 
the  next couple of days.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance 
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon 
if necessary. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.



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