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Tuesday Tropics Update

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A broad and elongated area of low pressure located about 875 miles 
east of the Lesser Antilles is producing a large area of 
disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms.  Although environmental 
conditions are only marginally conducive, some gradual development 
of this system is expected over the next several days and a 
tropical depression is likely to form later this week.  The 
disturbance is forecast to move slowly toward the west and then 
west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph, toward the adjacent waters of the 
northern Leeward Islands.  Additional information on this system 
can be found in high seas forecasts issued by the National Weather 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave accompanied by a broad area of low pressure 
is located just off the west coast of Africa.  Some gradual 
development is possible, and the system could become a short-lived 
tropical depression over the far eastern Atlantic during the next 
few days.  By late this week, the disturbance is forecast to move 
over cooler waters and further development is not likely after that 
time.  Regardless of development, the system could bring locally 
heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands by Wednesday. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.



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