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Tuesday Tropics Update

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

East of the Windward Islands:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential 
Tropical Cyclone Two, located several hundred miles east of the 
southern Windward Islands.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

1. Northern Gulf of Mexico:
A surface trough of low pressure is located over the north-central 
Gulf of Mexico. While shower and thunderstorm activity with this 
system is currently limited, surface pressures have fallen 
some over the last 24 hours. Some additional development of this 
system is possible as it moves generally westward at 5-10 mph and 
approaches the coast of Texas during the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located about 1200 miles east of the Windward 
Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This 
system is forecast to interact with another tropical wave to its 
east over the next several days, and some gradual development is 
possible later this week while the overall system moves west- 
northwestward at around 15 mph across the central tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.



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