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Thursday Tropics Update

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure stretching from the eastern Caribbean Sea 
northward to the southwestern Atlantic continues to produce a broad 
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The northern part of 
this trough axis is expected to result in the formation of a surface 
cyclone later today. Environmental conditions then appear marginally 
conducive for additional subtropical development, and a subtropical 
depression could form over the next couple of days while the system 
initially moves northward and then meanders to the west or southwest 
of Bermuda. By this weekend, upper-level winds are forecast to 
become less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

2. Eastern Caribbean:
An area of low pressure is expected to form over the eastern 
Caribbean Sea this weekend, possibly related to the southern part of 
an existing trough of low pressure over the area. Thereafter, 
environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual 
development, and a tropical depression could form by early next week 
while the disturbance moves generally westward or west-northwestward 
into the central Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.



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