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Thursday Tropics Update


Southeastern Caribbean Sea:
An area of low pressure located over the far southeastern Caribbean 
Sea is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms over the 
southern Windward Islands, northern South America, and adjacent 
waters.  Satellite-derived wind data indicate that this system does 
not yet have a well-defined center of circulation.  While land 
interaction with the northern coast of South America may hinder 
significant development during the next day or so, environmental 
conditions are expected to be mostly conducive for development as 
the system moves generally westward, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form in the next couple of days by the time the system 
enters the south-central Caribbean Sea.

1. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with localized flooding, 
as well as gusty winds to gale force, are expected over portions of 
the Windward Islands, northern portions of Venezuela including 
Isla Margarita, and the ABC Islands during the next day or two.  
Interests in those locations, in addition to those in Central 
America, should continue to monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

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