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Thursday Tropics Update

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Fiona, located several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda, and on 
Tropical Storm Gaston, located several hundred miles west of the 

1. Southeastern Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a tropical 
wave located over the far southeastern Caribbean Sea.  Although 
upper-level winds are currently inhibiting development, the 
upper-level wind pattern ahead of the system is forecast to become a 
little more favorable in a couple of days, and a tropical depression 
is likely to form at that time.  The disturbance is forecast to move 
west-northwestward across the eastern Caribbean Sea during the next 
day or two, and be over the central Caribbean Sea this weekend.  
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds 
are likely to affect the Windward Islands this morning. These 
impacts are likely to spread to northern Venezuela, northeastern 
Colombia, and the ABC island chain during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms located near the west coast of Africa are 
associated with a tropical wave that is expected to move over the 
warm waters of the far eastern Atlantic later today.  Thereafter, 
environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some 
development, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend 
while the system moves slowly northward, between west Africa and the 
Cabo Verde Islands. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

3. East Central Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles 
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Despite marginal 
environmental conditions, some slow development of this system is 
possible over the next several days while it moves slowly 
northwestward or northward over the tropical Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.



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