Thursday Tropics Update

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. East of the Leeward Islands:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low 
pressure located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands 
have gradually increased in organization over the past day or so. 
Although environmental conditions remain only marginally conducive,
any additional development of the system over the next few days 
would lead to the formation of a tropical depression.  The 
disturbance is forecast to move slowly west-northwestward, toward 
the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands.  Additional 
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts 
issued by the National Weather Service. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Satellite imagery and surface observations show that a broad area 
of lower pressure is located over and to the north of the Cabo 
Verde Islands.  While surface observations indicate pressures are 
low in this area, the associated shower activity is currently 
poorly organized. There is still a potential for the system to 
become a short-lived tropical depression within the next day or so 
before environmental conditions become unfavorable for further 
development. Regardless, the system could bring locally heavy 
rainfall to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands today and tonight. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

3. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
Shower activity associated with an area of low pressure located 
about 800 miles west-southwest of the westernmost Azores has become 
better organized during the past several hours.  If current trends 
continue, a tropical or subtropical depression could form later 
today while the system drifts generally eastward.  Additional 
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts 
issued by the National Weather Service. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.