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Thursday Tropics Update


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems: 
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently 
downgraded Tropical Storm Lisa, located inland over northeastern 
Guatemala, and on Hurricane Martin, located over the central North 
Atlantic.

1. Northwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is currently located several 
hundred miles to the east-northeast of Bermuda. This system is 
currently associated with a limited area of disorganized showers, 
and environmental conditions are only marginally favorable for some 
gradual subtropical or tropical development of this system as it 
begins to move more westward by this weekend. By early next week, 
this system is likely to be absorbed by a larger system developing 
to its southwest. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

2. Southwestern Atlantic:
Another non-tropical, but complex area of low pressure is expected 
to develop this weekend over the northeastern Caribbean Sea or the 
southwestern Atlantic. Some slow subtropical or tropical development 
of this system is possible afterward while it moves generally 
northward to northwestward through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.


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