Thursday Tropic Update

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential 
Tropical Cyclone Two, located over the Guajira Peninsula.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

1. Western Gulf of Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity remains poorly organized with an 
area of low pressure located over the western Gulf of Mexico. This 
system is forecast to move slowly westward and approach the coast of 
southern Texas and northern Mexico later today. Some slow 
development is still possible, and it could still become a 
short-lived tropical depression near the coast before it turns 
northwestward and moves inland over Texas later today. Regardless of 
development, heavy rain will be possible along portions of the Texas 
coast for the next few days. For more information about the 
potential for heavy rain, please see products issued by your 
National Weather Service office.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

2. Western Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the western tropical Atlantic continues 
to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Only slight 
additional development of this system is anticipated while it moves 
west-northwestward for the next several days. The wave is forecast 
to move over the Windward Islands late Friday or early Saturday and 
then over the eastern Caribbean Sea by the weekend, where further 
development is unlikely due to unfavorable environmental conditions.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.