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Sunday Tropics Update

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Caribbean:
A broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea 
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. 
However, overnight satellite wind data suggest the circulation is 
gradually becoming better defined. Environmental conditions are 
forecast to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form in the next couple of days while the 
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central and 
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Interests in Jamaica should monitor the 
progress of this system. NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter 
aircraft will be investigating the system this morning. Regardless 
of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of 
the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, 
and Jamaica during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. Western Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with 
an area of low pressure area located a little more than 100 miles 
northeast of Bermuda. However, this system is forecast to interact 
and merge with a nearby frontal zone as upper-level winds increase 
over the system. Thus, subtropical or tropical development of this 
system remains unlikely. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.



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