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Saturday Morning Tropics

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Caribbean:
A broad area of low pressure over the eastern Caribbean Sea is 
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. 
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual 
development over the next few days, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form by early next week while the disturbance moves slowly 
westward or west-northwestward over the central Caribbean Sea. 
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over 
portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico 
through this weekend. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. Western Atlantic:
A low pressure area located about 150 miles west-northwest of 
Bermuda is producing some shower and thunderstorm activity to the 
north of the center as it begins to interact with a nearby frontal 
system. Upper-level winds are forecast to increase over the system 
later today and tonight, and further development is not anticipated 
after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.



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