For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized in association
with a sharp trough of low pressure located less than 400 miles east
of Bermuda. Environmental conditions are only marginally conducive
for some tropical or subtropical development of this system over the
next day or so while it moves generally westward, passing near
Bermuda. Afterwards, the system is forecast to turn northward
towards the cooler waters of the northwestern Atlantic, and further
development is not anticipated by that time as upper-level winds
increase.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
2. Southwestern Atlantic:
An upper-level trough currently located over the Bahamas is
forecast to help induce the formation of a surface trough of low
pressure to the north of Puerto Rico in a few days. Thereafter,
environmental conditions could be conducive for some subtropical
development of this system as it moves generally northward through
the latter half of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.