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Monday Tropics

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized in association 
with a sharp trough of low pressure located less than 400 miles east 
of Bermuda. Environmental conditions are only marginally conducive 
for some tropical or subtropical development of this system over the 
next day or so while it moves generally westward, passing near 
Bermuda. Afterwards, the system is forecast to turn northward 
towards the cooler waters of the northwestern Atlantic, and further 
development is not anticipated by that time as upper-level winds 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

2. Southwestern Atlantic:
An upper-level trough currently located over the Bahamas is 
forecast to help induce the formation of a surface trough of low 
pressure to the north of Puerto Rico in a few days. Thereafter, 
environmental conditions could be conducive for some subtropical 
development of this system as it moves generally northward through 
the latter half of this week. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.



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