For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A large area of disturbed weather located near the Yucatan Peninsula
is interacting with an upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico
and producing a broad region of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive
for gradual development, and this system is likely to become a
tropical depression by the weekend as it moves northeastward into
the northwestern Caribbean Sea, southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and
crosses the Florida Peninsula. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall is likely across portions of southeastern Mexico, the
Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, and Belize during the next couple of
days, spreading across western Cuba, southern Florida, and the
Florida Keys on Friday and Saturday. Interests in the Yucatan
Peninsula, western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
2. Southwestern Atlantic northeast of the Bahamas:
A weak surface trough located around 200 miles northeast of the
central Bahamas is producing disorganized shower activity as it
interacts with an upper-level trough. Surface pressures are
currently high across the area, and significant development of this
system appears unlikely as it moves generally east-northeastward
over the next several days away from the southeastern United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which
will run until November 30. Long-term averages for the number of
named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 14, 7, and 3,
respectively.
The list of names for 2022 is as follows:
Name Pronunciation Name Pronunciation
-------------------------------------------------------------
Alex AL-leks Lisa LEE-suh
Bonnie BAH-nee Martin MAR-tin
Colin KAH-lihn Nicole nih-KOHL
Danielle dan-YELL Owen OH-uhn
Earl URR-ull Paula PAHL-luh
Fiona fee-OH-nuh Richard RIH-churd
Gaston ga-STAWN Shary SHAHR-ee
Hermine her-MEEN Tobias toh-BEE-uss
Ian EE-an Virginie vir-JIN-ee
Julia JOO-lee-uh Walter WALL-tur
Karl KAR-ull
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