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Friday Tropics Update

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean 
continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms. A surface low pressure system is forecast to emerge 
along the northern portion of the trough axis later tonight or on
Friday, and some subsequent development could occur through 
Saturday. By late Saturday, upper-level winds are forecast to 
become less conducive for development, and the low is expected to 
begin interacting with an approaching frontal system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. Eastern Caribbean:
An area of low pressure is expected to form over the eastern 
Caribbean Sea this weekend, possibly related to the southern portion 
of an existing trough of low pressure over the area. Environmental 
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and 
a tropical depression could form early next week while the 
disturbance moves generally westward or west-northwestward over the 
central Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.



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